Cyclone Narelle Re-Intensifies to Category 4, Threatens Western Australia Coast
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has strengthened again to Category 4, according to the latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology issued at 2 am Perth time. The system is expected to intensify further as it moves along the coast.
The cyclone is currently producing sustained winds of around 185 km/h, with peak gusts reaching up to 260 km/h. Forecasts indicate the potential for destructive wind gusts of up to around 230 km/h at landfall, along with heavy rainfall exceeding 200 mm in some areas. This raises a significant risk of flash flooding, particularly in low-lying regions.
Narelle is expected to impact parts of the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts today. A warning zone is in place from Port Hedland to Denham, covering key locations such as Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, and Carnarvon. The alert also extends inland to areas including Pannawonica and Gascoyne Junction.
Narelle has travelled across northern Queensland, the Northern Territory and now to Western Australia over the past week, intensifying and easing and intensifying again.
Actionable Analytics on EigenPrism
Forecast
Windstorm & Flood Dataset
All EigenPrism® users can assess the forecast of the tropical storm using the following report template:
This report template consists of the following wind and flood footprints: 5-day Forecast Max Winds by Adiabat, Wind Swath Advisory by Hurricane Mapping, 5-Day & 3-Day ANZ Flood Potential. The pages auto-update with the latest available data.
Reask
Subscribers of Reask can use these real-time footprints on EigenPrism® to quickly assess the wind impact:
Reask’s LivCyc Scenarios
Reask subscribers in EigenPrism can use the LiveCyc ensemble scenarios for Cyclone Narelle to generate a range of potential loss estimates with more confidence.
To view multiple scenarios at once, you can run Eigen Rover – Here’s how:
- Start an EigenRover Analysis and select your exposure dataset.
- When the Model Catalog opens automatically, open the event set ‘Tropical Cyclone Forecast: Windspeed Footprint Ensembles from Reask LiveCyc’, type in ‘Narelle’ in the search box, and choose the footprints for the latest release.
- Click ‘Run’ to generate loss estimates based on the different ensemble scenarios. For more information on the scenarios, you can add additional columns like the event rate and gate to the table by clicking on the ellipsis of the table and choosing the fields.
Post-Event
Windstorm Dataset
All EigenPrism® users can assess the impact of the tropical cyclone using the following event footprint:
- Tropical Cyclone Narelle Past Max Winds as of Mar 26, 2026, from Adiabat
- TropCyclone Narelle Past Wind Swath – Advisory 35 as of Mar 26, 2026 from Hurricane Mapping
ICEYE Flood Dataset
Subscribers of ICEYE in EigenPrism can assess the impact of flood inundation, using the following event footprints:
Alerts
Users who have alerts set on their exposures for the relevant event sets, like those from Adiabat & Hurricane Mapping, will receive alerts (if the event footprints impact these exposures). To learn more about how to set an alert on a specific event set, check out this help center article. Feel free to contact us at Prism.Support@eigenrisk.com or reach out directly to your Customer Success Manager with any questions or concerns. Our team is here to assist you with setting alerts, understanding report templates, and maximizing the actionable insights available through EigenPrism®.
Mar 18 | Cyclone Narelle Forecast to Strengthen into Category 5 Near Queensland Coast
Cyclone Narelle has developed over the Coral Sea and is forecast to strengthen significantly into a category five cyclone as it moves toward Far North Queensland later this week. Current sustained winds are around 85 km/h, with gusts reaching up to 120 km/h, but the system is expected to intensify further over warm waters. The system is expected to approach the coast between Lockhart River and Port Douglas, with the potential to reach severe tropical cyclone intensity prior to landfall. A Tropical Cyclone Watch has been issued for coastal and nearby inland areas within this zone. From Thursday onward, wind impacts are likely to increase. Destructive gusts of up to around 155 km/h may develop between Coen and Cooktown by Thursday night. Areas between Cape Melville and Port Douglas could experience damaging winds of up to about 120 km/h starting early Thursday, with these conditions spreading north toward Lockhart River later in the day. Heavy rainfall is also expected to intensify from Thursday evening across coastal regions between Cape Melville and Port Douglas, before spreading inland on Friday. This may lead to localized flash flooding, particularly in low-lying and already saturated areas. After making landfall, the system is expected to weaken as it tracks inland across the Cape York Peninsula, gradually losing strength while continuing to produce rain and gusty winds.
Actionable Analytics on EigenPrism
Forecast
Windstorm & Flood Dataset
All EigenPrism® users can assess the forecast of the tropical storm using the following report template:
This report template consists of the following wind and flood footprints: Wind Swath Advisory by Hurricane Mapping, 5-Day & 3-Day ANZ Flood Potential. The pages auto-update with the latest available data.
Post-Event
All EigenPrism® users can assess the impact of the tropical cyclone using the following event footprint:
Alerts
Users who have alerts set on their exposures for the relevant event sets, like those from Adiabat & Hurricane Mapping, will receive alerts (if the event footprints impact these exposures). To learn more about how to set an alert on a specific event set, check out this help center article. Feel free to contact us at Prism.Support@eigenrisk.com or reach out directly to your Customer Success Manager with any questions or concerns. Our team is here to assist you with setting alerts, understanding report templates, and maximizing the actionable insights available through EigenPrism®.
Not an EigenPrism User? Here’s a Quick Way to Check ZIP-Level Impact
For underwriters, brokers, and portfolio managers who need fast visibility into impacted ZIP codes, we’ve built a tool called ZIP Response on our website. It’s a free, no-login tool that highlights the top ZIP codes that are most impacted during active events, such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and severe storms. You can request the complete ZIP list by simply filling out a short form and get it delivered straight to your inbox. If you’d like to explore the impacted ZIP codes for this event, visit ZIP Response. Or Contact us, to have more info on this.
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