Tropical Storm Ernesto Threatens Puerto Rico and the Caribbean with Storm Surge and Floods

Hurricane Ernesto Threatens U.S. East Coast with Powerful Swells, Triggering Coastal Warnings

Posted August 20, 2024

Hurricane Ernesto gained strength early Monday as it continued its journey across the Atlantic, heading toward easternmost Canada. Although the storm is expected to remain offshore, it is generating powerful swells, dangerous surf, and rip currents along the U.S. East Coast.

Ernesto originally became a hurricane last week after passing by Puerto Rico and making landfall in Bermuda. Over the weekend, the storm caused treacherous beach conditions along the U.S. East Coast, contributing to several dangerous situations.

As of Monday, Ernesto’s maximum sustained winds had increased to around 80 mph (129 kph), with even stronger gusts reported, according to the National Hurricane Center. However, the storm is expected to weaken and transition into a post-tropical storm by Tuesday.

At the time of the update, Ernesto was located approximately 70 miles (113 kilometers) south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and was forecasted to move into the open Atlantic on Tuesday. While coastal flooding in parts of Canada was possible, the primary impact was anticipated to be offshore.

Over the weekend, Ernesto had temporarily weakened to a tropical storm by late Saturday after bringing heavy rain and strong winds to Bermuda. The National Weather Service issued High Surf Advisories for coastal areas of Maine and New Hampshire.
Hurricane Ernesto Threatens U.S. East Coast with Powerful Swells, Triggering Coastal Warnings: Actionable Insights on EigenPrism

Post-Event

All EigenPrism® users can assess the impact of the tropical cyclone using the following report template.

Hurricane Ernesto 2024 Post-Event Impact Report

The report template auto-updates with the latest available footprints, which include:

Hurricane Ernesto 2024 Past Max Winds by Adiabat
Hurricane Ernesto Past Wind Swath – Advisory by Hurricane Mapping

Forecast

All EigenPrism® users can assess the forecast of the tropical cyclone using the following report template.

Tropical Cyclone Ernesto 2024 Forecast Impact Report

The report template auto-updates with the latest available footprints, which include:

Tropical-Storm-Force (greater than 34 kt) Wind Arrival Times by NOAA
TropStorm Ernesto Forecast Wind Swath – Advisory 07 by Hurricane Mapping
5-day Tropical-Storm-Force (greater than 34 kt) Wind Probabilities by Hurricane Mapping
5-day Hurricane-Force (greater than 64 kt) Wind Probabilities by Wind Hurricane Mapping

Aug 16 | Bermuda Braces for Hurricane Ernesto as It Intensifies to Category 2

Hurricane Ernesto intensified into a Category 2 storm on Thursday night as it advanced towards Bermuda after causing significant damage in Puerto Rico. The storm’s powerful winds knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of residents, with LUMA Energy reporting that at one point, nearly half of Puerto Rico’s customers were without electricity on Wednesday. In the Virgin Islands, more than 50 thousand people are without power.

Ernesto transitioned from a tropical storm to a hurricane after passing Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and by Thursday night, it was located approximately 410 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, moving at around 14 mph. The hurricane’s maximum sustained winds reached 100 mph. Earlier in the week, Tropical Storm Ernesto made landfall in the British Virgin Islands on Tuesday night with winds of 65 mph, categorizing it as a strong tropical storm.

Forecasts indicate that Ernesto could further intensify, potentially becoming the season’s second major hurricane Category 3 or stronger as it crosses 600 miles of the Atlantic before reaching Bermuda early Saturday. A hurricane warning has been issued for Bermuda. The center of Ernesto is expected to track near or directly over Bermuda on Saturday, but the island will begin experiencing severe weather conditions much earlier.

Heavy rain and tropical-storm-force wind gusts could start impacting Bermuda as early as Friday morning. The storm is predicted to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain through Saturday night, with isolated areas possibly receiving up to 15 inches.

In Puerto Rico, the intense rainfall from Ernesto caused several rivers to overflow, leading to widespread flooding and disrupting water filtration processes at numerous water treatment plants. The aftermath of the storm has left a significant impact on the island, with ongoing recovery efforts.

Bermuda Braces for Hurricane Ernesto as It Intensifies to Category 2: Actionable Insights on EigenPrism

Post-Event

All EigenPrism® users can assess the impact of the tropical cyclone using the following report template.

Hurricane Ernesto 2024 Post-Event Impact Report

The report template auto-updates with the latest available footprints, which include:

Hurricane Ernesto 2024 Past Max Winds by Adiabat
Hurricane Ernesto Past Wind Swath – Advisory by Hurricane Mapping

Forecast

Subscribers of Reask can use this real-time footprint on EigenPrism® to quickly assess the impact:

Tropical Cyclone wind speed footprint from Reask LiveCyc as on August 13

All EigenPrism® users can assess the forecast of the tropical cyclone using the following report template.

Tropical Cyclone Ernesto 2024 Forecast Impact Report

The report template auto-updates with the latest available footprints, which include:

Tropical-Storm-Force (greater than 34 kt) Wind Arrival Times by NOAA
TropStorm Ernesto Forecast Wind Swath – Advisory 07 by Hurricane Mapping
5-day Tropical-Storm-Force (greater than 34 kt) Wind Probabilities by Hurricane Mapping
5-day Hurricane-Force (greater than 64 kt) Wind Probabilities by Wind Hurricane Mapping

Aug 13 | Tropical Storm Ernesto Threatens Puerto Rico and the Caribbean with Storm Surge and Floods

Tropical Storm Ernesto is currently intensifying in the Atlantic, with Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands directly in its path. tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and the Leeward Islands as the storm approaches. The warnings extend to several Caribbean islands, including Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barts, and St. Maarten.

Following the impact of Hurricane Debby, Tropical Storm Ernesto is predicted to bring severe weather to the Leeward Islands late Monday into Tuesday. Puerto Rico is particularly vulnerable, with forecasts predicting up to 10 inches of rain, flash flooding, and storm surges reaching up to 3 feet between Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Ernesto is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it moves away from the Caribbean and into the open Atlantic by midweek. The storm could strengthen further to a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches Bermuda late Friday into Saturday morning. While rough surf and dangerous rip currents are anticipated along the East Coast by the weekend and into the following week, Ernesto is not expected to make landfall on the U.S. mainland.